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Star Wars Franchise Uncertainty
In nearly every Star Wars tale, there comes a time when our adored heroes encounter an ambush. What they believed to be a straightforward escape through a trash chute, a securely concealed Hoth base, or a well - protected Mandalorian castle suddenly transforms into a deadly zone. Our heroes must rely on their fortune, courage, and the Force to survive.
Recently, it appears that Disney+'s Star Wars television series have blundered into their own perils and are in need of salvation.
Star Wars Celebration 2022, less than a year ago, was somewhat of a victory celebration for Lucasfilm and Disney. After years of virtual meetings and COVID - 19 - delayed productions, fans gathered in large numbers in Anaheim to get a peek at the future of Star Wars and honor their heroes in person. Videos of Mandalorian star Pedro Pascal shouting, "I love you!" to the crowd and prequels' anti - hero Hayden Christensen relishing in the spotlight of a redemptive Obi - Wan Kenobi - centered press tour became viral within fan communities. However, when Star Wars fans reconvene for Celebration 2023 in London this weekend, the mood may be a bit less upbeat. The fans will probably still be excited, but the seemingly impenetrable front of Star Wars on Disney+ has begun to show fissures.
The first two seasons of The Mandalorian were both huge critical and commercial hits. But Star Wars TV in 2022 was a rather mixed affair. The Book of Boba Fett divided fans and let down critics, receiving a relatively generous 66% rating from critics compared to the 55% from the audience on Rotten Tomatoes. Obi - Wan Kenobi was more favorably received but didn't have a huge impact on pop culture. Andor was adored by critics across the board, but shunned by the general audience, making it the least - watched Star Wars live - action show on Disney+ so far.
The latest season of The Mandalorian , which debuted on March 1, 2023, has received a notably cooler reception compared to its predecessor. Lead actor Pedro Pascal, who also starred in HBO’s The Last of Us , was garnering more attention for his role there. Critics were less enthusiastic about this new season, and industry chatter suggested that the show wasn’t pulling in the sky-high ratings it once did. These factors, along with reports of several Star Wars projects being put on hold or canceled, raise questions about the future of the franchise on Disney+.
In 2023, the state of Star Wars on Disney+ seems uncertain. The lukewarm response to The Mandalorian Season 3 has sparked concerns. Is this a significant misstep for the beloved series? What do fans truly desire from the next Star Wars installments? And should Disney be worried about the health of one of its most valuable properties?
The third season of The Mandalorian hasn't exactly flopped, but it is showing some signs of fatigue, both in terms of critical reception and audience interest.
The first two seasons of the show were a hit with both critics and fans. They boasted an impressive 93% "Fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, the third season has seen a dip in critical acclaim, with the initial episodes scoring an 86% average. This is still a solid score, but it's a noticeable decline from the earlier seasons.
For context, other recent Star Wars series have had varying levels of success. The Book of Boba Fett scored 66%, Obi-Wan Kenobi received 82%, and Andor achieved a franchise-high 96%. Despite this, Google Trends data shows that search interest for The Mandalorian Season 3, while still leading among the Star Wars live-action series, has dropped by nearly two-thirds compared to the peaks of Seasons 1 and 2.
Julia Alexander, the director of strategy at Parrot Analytics, highlighted these concerns in Matthew Belloni’s Puck newsletter. She noted, “Disney is the king of franchises, but there’s no doubt that disinterest is setting in. Sure, others would kill for a Star Wars or a Marvel, audience decay be damned. But the numbers for The Mandalorian don’t look good.”
According to Parrot Analytics, the third season is the least in-demand, averaging half the demand of the first season. SambaTV also reported a significant drop in viewership compared to the second season. When the official Nielsen data was released, the premiere episode of The Mandalorian Season 3, titled “The Apostate,” ranked as the fifth most-watched streaming show of the week, trailing behind Netflix’s Outer Banks , Murdaugh Murders: A Southern Scandal , HBO Max’s The Last of Us , and the syndicated CBS show NCIS (available on both Netflix and Paramount+).
While The Mandalorian remains the top Star Wars show on Disney+, it's clear that fewer people are tuning in compared to previous seasons. The question now is, what led to this decline between the second and third seasons?
The initial seasons of The Mandalorian were met with widespread praise and excitement. However, the reception for the third season has been notably less enthusiastic. One possible reason for this shift could be the impact of The Book of Boba Fett .
The Book of Boba Fett is generally considered the weakest entry in the live-action Star Wars series on Disney+. Not only did it lower the overall quality of the franchise, but it also affected the fan anticipation for The Mandalorian Season 3. The second season of The Mandalorian ended with a dramatic cliffhanger: a young, digitally-recreated Luke Skywalker rescuing Grogu and taking him under his wing, separating the Mandalorian from his adopted child. Fans expected that the next season would explore their eventual reunion. However, this reunion occurred unexpectedly in the middle of The Book of Boba Fett , which Ryan Arey, a Star Wars expert at Screencrush, sees as a missed opportunity.
"The second season of The Mandalorian concluded with an incredible cliffhanger, one that could be compared to iconic moments like 'Who shot JR?' on Dallas ," Arey told Decider. "But then, this suspense was resolved in just two episodes of a mediocre spinoff. If the separation and reunion had been more drawn out, this could have been the most highly-rated season of The Mandalorian ."
There are additional challenges facing the Star Wars live-action TV lineup. In a recent discussion, Matt Singer, Editor-in-Chief of Screencrush, and Heather Antos, Senior Editor at IDW, argued that the shows' reliance on easter eggs makes them appealing primarily to hardcore fans. Arey agrees with this assessment, noting that while he enjoys the show, it often assumes a deep knowledge of the lore that not all viewers possess.
"As a fan, I still look forward to watching The Mandalorian every Wednesday morning. But I am familiar with the extensive backstory. The show hasn't done a great job of introducing casual fans to the stories that precede the series by decades. If you haven't seen Clone Wars , you might feel like you're missing important context."
Despite these issues, there's a silver lining for Arey and Screencrush. Their detailed explanations of the easter eggs and lore have attracted a growing audience. While The Mandalorian may be experiencing a drop in ratings, Screencrush's YouTube traffic is on the rise.
"Our views on the Screencrush channel are stronger than ever. Our fan base remains loyal, regardless of whether they love or hate the shows. We might also be getting better at covering the content," Arey said.
However, Arey also acknowledges a sense of fatigue setting in for the franchise. "Every moment of Star Wars used to feel special. As much as I enjoy covering the shows, each new hour of content makes the franchise more routine. This would have happened even if Disney had stuck to their original plan of releasing a Star Wars movie annually. It seems inevitable that Star Wars would eventually become more common."
This raises a critical question: Does Star Wars need to remain unique and special to continue being a profitable asset for Disney, especially given the company's current financial and structural challenges?
Disney+ Star Wars Challenges
Disney can take some comfort in the fact that the slight dip in "The Mandalorian" season 3 ratings isn't a catastrophe. As pointed out in Puck by Alexander, Disney is becoming more cautious with its content investment, which coincides with this season - over - season decline.
Alexander wondered, "If 'The Mandalorian' is faltering, and 'Boba Fett' didn't reach the performance level of 'The Mandalorian's' second season, when will the pullback start?" He also noted that aside from "The Mandalorian", Disney's live - action slate is in trouble. Disney+ is largely centered around Star Wars fans, so it's a difficult situation to handle, especially with a possible recession looming.
One might quickly think of Marvel as the solution to Disney+'s problems, but Marvel has its own challenges. The latest MCU movie, "Ant - Man and the Wasp: Quantumania", was a big box - office letdown. It couldn't overtake James Cameron's 2022 hit "Avatar: The Way of Water" for the top spot of the year. Moreover, the movie is now linked to serious domestic abuse allegations against its star Jonathan Majors, who Marvel had hoped would be the MCU's next major villain, Kang. Marvel is also dealing with significant internal upheaval due to a legal dispute following the recent termination of long - time executive Victoria Alonso.
However, Marvel isn't completely out of the game. "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" is anticipated to rake in a large amount of money this summer, and there are several live - action TV projects in the works for Disney+, such as "Secret Invasion", "Loki" season 2, and "Daredevil: Born Again".
Nevertheless, Disney+ needs to rely on the Star Wars franchise for the "Mando" boost at least. If "The Mandalorian" by itself can't do the job, then what? What's the optimal way forward for Star Wars?
Despite potential stumbles with 'The Mandalorian', Disney+ boasts an extensive lineup of Star Wars projects in development, catering to various fan demographics.
'Ahsoka', overseen by Dave Filoni, is anticipated to continue the animated Star Wars legacy with live-action elements, appealing to die-hard fans. However, its ability to resonate with casual viewers remains to be seen.
'The Acolyte', from 'Russian Doll' creator Leslye Headland, explores the decline of the Jedi Order a century before 'Star Wars: Episode I: The Phantom Menace'. With a star-studded cast, it holds prestige potential but may not necessarily attract a broader audience.
'Star Wars: Skeleton Crew', set in the same timeframe as 'The Mandalorian', promises a more family-friendly approach, reminiscent of 'The Goonies'. Jude Law's involvement and the Daniels' direction for one episode add intrigue, yet their distanced stance on the project raises questions about its overall appeal.
The upcoming Celebration 2023 event is poised to reveal more about the future of Star Wars, including potential projects involving Donald Glover and Rian Johnson's envisioned trilogy. This presents an opportunity for Lucasfilm to address fan and investor concerns.
While Star Wars on Disney+ supports the franchise's narrative and boosts subscriptions, fans ultimately crave cinematic experiences. The saga's heart lies on the big screen, and its future success may hinge on Disney+ performance, balancing episodic content with the grand scale of film storytelling.
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